Productivity in Greater Manchester before the pandemic stood 35 per cent below London's. In Hive of talent, a report from LSE's Centre for Economic Performance launched at a National Productivity Week event at Alliance Manchester Business School, Aadya Bahl and Henry Overman calculate that narrowing the gap to the 20 per cent separating Paris and Lyon would require an expansion of degree and sub-degree qualified workers equivalent to around 180,000 people.
The report dissects the three pathways through which skilled workers reach the city: local education, the higher education system and migration. Between 2011 and 2019 Manchester added around 11,620 graduates and 2,380 sub-degree qualified workers a year. The higher education route contributes most, with around 11,500 retained graduates a year by the early 2020s, but it leans on international students. Raising the city's graduate retention rate from 67 per cent to London's 79 per cent would more than offset projected immigration-policy losses.
The harder problem is sub-degree skills, where 92 per cent of Mancunians with intermediate qualifications stop at level 3 and migration contributes little. The authors argue the Adult Education Budget should be systematically reoriented towards level 4 and 5 qualifications, and that attracting and retaining talent ultimately depends on jobs, housing and transport as much as skills policy. The analysis offers a template any second city could apply to its own workforce arithmetic.