Why do some pupils end up at more selective universities than their exam results would predict? Research by Jo Blanden, Oliver Cassagneau-Francis, Lindsey Macmillan and Gill Wyness, summarised in the Spring 2026 issue of the Centre for Economic Performance's CentrePiece magazine, shows that pupils from private schools are more likely to apply to the UK's most selective universities than state school counterparts with similar grades and academic achievements.
The consequence is what the researchers call overmatching: privately educated students disproportionately attend universities more selective than their attainment alone would predict. Part of the explanation appears to lie in application strategy. Private school pupils are bolder in their choices and less likely to include safety options among their applications, behaviour consistent with greater confidence, better information or stronger encouragement from schools with long experience of elite admissions.
The findings matter for universities trying to widen participation, since they show inequality operating not only through grades but through the application process itself. The same CentrePiece issue ranges across CEP's current research, from automation's effects on manufacturing employment to property tax reform and the economics of the net zero transition, alongside a tribute to Philippe Aghion, co-recipient of the 2025 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and a long-standing collaborator of the Centre.