Should Switzerland build new nuclear power stations? A white paper by 19 energy experts from ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute, among them André Bardow, Andreas Pautz and Christian Schaffner, tackles the question with four independent energy models, each calculating the cheapest carbon-neutral electricity mix for 2050 against rising demand. The researchers treated findings as robust only where the models agreed, giving the political debate an unusually careful evidence base.
The decisive variable is construction cost. At 12,000 francs per kilowatt, new reactors fail to pay off in three of the four models; at 5,000 francs, between 2.6 and 4.9 gigawatts of new capacity would be profitable, compared with roughly 3 gigawatts across Switzerland's four existing reactors. Under current policy, which supports only renewables, new plants are too expensive in most scenarios; government risk-sharing and financing costs cut from 8 to 5 per cent would change the calculus.
The analysis also shows Switzerland can reach net-zero by 2050 without nuclear power, with solar supplying 36 to 43 terawatt hours and hydropower and solar together providing about three-quarters of electricity. Winter remains the weak point: net imports of 5.4 to 12.4 terawatt hours would still be needed, which new reactors could trim by between 1 and 6. The authors deliberately leave the final choice to politics and the electorate.