TRACE · Tracing Informal Constitutional Changes using Word Embeddings

TRACE investigates informal constitutional changes initiated by constitutional courts, utilizing a novel methodological framework that brings together political science, constitutional law, and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Informal constitutional changes occur when a constitutional court quietly adopts new interpretations of constitutional norms, often influenced by political pressures. Traditional approaches in political science and constitutional law are not adequately equipped to explore these subtle shifts. TRACE will employ contextualized word embeddings to track changes in the semantic structure of Turkish Constitutional Court (TCC) case law, with a focus on key topics such as the separation of powers, individual rights, and secularism. Turkish constitutional history, marked by recurring crises and the central role of the TCC, offers an ideal context for examining these implicit constitutional changes. TRACE is organized around three objectives. The first objective is to identify the semantic structure of Turkish constitutional case law. The second is to detect informal semantic changes within this case law, using cosine similarity scores and dynamic visualizations to measure shifts in constitutional interpretation. The third is to analyze the contextual and theoretical implications of these findings, exploring the causal relationship between informal changes and episodes of political pressure on the TCC, re-evaluating theories of constitutional change, and generating insights relevant to other constitutional regimes.Through this comprehensive approach, TRACE aims to enhance our understanding of how constitutional norms evolve under political pressure and how constitutional courts adapt their rulings. Ultimately, the project will contribute to the design of more resilient democratic institutions and provide timely insights into empirical legal studies and the ongoing debates about the populist challenge to the rule of law and judicial independence.