TIP-FRESH · Social Tipping Points in the Food System for Freshwater Sustainability

The increasing global demand for farmland products is placing unprecedented pressure on the global agricultural system and its water resources. Landscape conversion for agriculture (of which 75% is used for livestock) and increasing irrigation demand (accounting 70% of global water withdrawals) are exacerbating water stress and groundwater depletion, while altering atmospheric moisture recycling (i.e., the process of water evaporating from land, flowing through the atmosphere, and falling out again as precipitation over land), which is vital for regulating the climate and the Earth’s system stability. To accelerate the food system transition toward sustainable diets, TIP-FRESH will pioneer a groundbreaking approach to reversing the freshwater crisis through social tipping points in the global food system. The concept of Social Tipping Points that this project exploits offers an opportunity to escape the current dominant food regime and spread the adoption of less water-intensive diets that have already been adopted in niches. Individual and collective dietary shifts can trigger cascading impacts across international trade networks and production systems, ultimately reshaping the way freshwater is consumed and preserved. By leveraging the concept of social tipping points, TIP-FRESH project will develop a novel framework integrating multidisciplinary approaches: mathematical tools will be employed to analyse dietary patterns and diagnose how tipping dynamics have manifested over past decades; hydrological modelling will provide a deeper understanding on the diets’ freshwater impacts by newly quantifying the hydrological repercussions of livestock-driven deforestation; and system dynamic model describing behavioural change will pave the way to sustainable diets and their potential to spread from niche behaviours to the dominant food regime through social networks.