PREHDICT · health-economic modelling of PREvention strategies for Hpv-related Diseases in European CounTries

The goals of the PREHDICT study are to determine prerequisites and strategies for vaccination in European countries and to predict the impact of vaccination on screening programmes. To achieve these goals, a multiple HPV type transmission model will be built to describe the type-specific incidence and clearance of HPV infections. This model will be linked to an individual-based simulation model used for modelling the impact of screening. For HPV-related diseases other than cervical cancer and genital warts, Markov models will be developed after critical review of the role of HPV. In the PREHDICT study, country-specific cost-effectiveness analyses will be performed for the vaccination and include determination of the vaccination age, the number of doses, the vaccination population, and the optimal catch-up vaccination age. Furthermore, the impact of vaccination on screening programmes will be assessed. This involves determination of the screening technology, screening frequency, and follow-up management of test-positive women. Special attention will be given to screening attendance and its relation to vaccination attendance. To have models with strong empirical support, the PREHDICT team will collect the most updated data on HPV infection, HPV-related disease, life-style factors, and demographics. Furthermore, HPV-type specific analyses will be performed on the outcomes of a vaccination trial, 3 large screening trials, and one self-sampling trial for screening non-attenders. By meta-analytical techniques, results will be pooled. The costs involved in the calculations will include the costs of organizing, running, and monitoring a vaccination and/or screening programme. The results of the PREHDICT study will be published in international peer-reviewed journals, posted on the WHO HPV information centre website and will also be systematically disseminated to all major stakeholders, in particular to decision makers at European, national and sub-national levels.