PHENOTIPPING · Tipping dynamics and resilience in adapting ecological systems

Anthropogenic changes impose stress upon ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, hence understanding how ecosystems will respond to these environmental changes is an urgent matter. There is growing concern over the possibility that gradual environmental changes can cause major shifts in the structure and functioning of ecosystems, potentially altering the services that they provide. Such shifts can occur when environmental thresholds are exceeded, causing an ecosystem to tip into an alternative contrasting state. Despite environmental changes alter both ecological and phenotypic trait dynamics, and these dynamics influence one another, the framework for understanding and predicting the occurrence of tipping phenomena in ecosystems has largely neglected trait dynamics and, thus, the capacity of organisms to adapt. To fill this gap, the proposed project aims to understand how adaptation influences ecological resilience. This will be achieved through an integrative approach in the interface between theoretical and empirical methods. First, a theoretical framework will be developed to investigate how adaptation, mediated by phenotypic plasticity and evolution, influences tipping phenomena in ecological systems. Second, an eco-evolutionary experiment aimed to test theoretical predictions will be carried out on plankton populations. This experiment will afford unprecedented insight into the interaction between the rate of environmental change and the rate of adaptation, and their influence on the occurrence of tipping phenomena. Third, the findings will be contextualized in a broader socio-ecological framework to provide insights into how adaptation, by influencing resilience, impacts the sustainability of socio-ecological systems. The results of this project will open new vistas in ecology, evolutionary biology, and resilience science.