MicroRefugia · Microclimate refugia: the hidden drivers of mammalian responses to climate change

To address the accelerating crises of climate change and biodiversity loss, adaptive conservation strategies must account for organismal responses to microclimatic conditions, which are often strongly decoupled from the macroclimate variables traditionally used in ecological studies. Microclimates, shaped by canopy, topography, and moisture, buffer extremes and can keep near-ground conditions cooler with narrower diurnal ranges than open air, meaning they better reflect what animals actually experience. Yet the extent to which biophysical factors shape microclimates, and how these conditions reflect species’ actual experiences and drive their responses, remains poorly understood. By leveraging my unique access to continent-wide camera-trap time series and in situ microclimate sensor networks, resources rarely combined at this scale, together with meter-scale remote sensing and advanced machine learning, this proposal, “MicroRefugia”, will uncover how microclimatic buffering mitigates climate impacts and shapes mammal community responses across Europe. The project will move beyond static spatial analyses to quantify fine-scale temporal variability in microclimates and associated shifts in mammal activity patterns, providing unprecedented insight into how species track and exploit microclimatic refugia across fragmented landscapes. This work will deliver policy-ready evidence on when and where microclimate buffering sustains vulnerable species, enriching debates on connected conservation networks and climate-smart restoration strategies to safeguard Europe’s biodiversity. Alongside these scientific advances, the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions program will place me, Elham Ebrahimi, on a strong trajectory toward research leadership. The fellowship enables innovative research, targeted training, and new collaborations within the host institution and with international partners, fully aligned with the objectives of Horizon Europe.