KASSANDRA · Accounting for human behaviour in risk assessments of zoonotic spillover and international spread of infectious diseases in scenarios of global change

Zoonotic spillover and the subsequent global spread of infectious diseases represent an increasing global threat to our society. Projections of future zoonotic spillover events are based on the spatial copresence of human and animal host population and risk assessments of local outbreaks to spread globally rely on observed mobility data. However, human behaviour is a complex phenomenon driven by socio-economic, environmental and demographic factors that altogether shape human mobility patterns and the human-host contact rate, which is key to zoonotic spillover. By impacting these drivers, future global economic, demographic, environmental and climate change will alter the risk of zoonotic spillover and global spread of infectious diseases.Here, focusing on scenarios of future climate and land-use change, demographic and economic development (SSP-RCP), I intend to (i) produce maps of future spillover risk that account for the behavioural determinants shaping human-host contact and (ii) assess the risk of the global spread of future infectious diseases. I will focus on infectious diseases of bat origin and I will estimate the effect of economic, demographic, environmental and ecological drivers in defining human-bat contact rates. Drawing on these results I will produce synthetic human-bat contact data and maps of future risk of zoonotic spillover. Then, I will use the risk maps to assess the risk of the global spread of future infectious diseases. To this end, I will use a global metapopulation model informed by projections of international human mobility patterns that will be obtained from a global international human mobility model that I will develop. In doing so I will include key drivers and behavioural processes (e.g., economic constraints) of human mobility. The outcome of the project will advance our understanding and preparedness to future zoonotic spillover and pandemic risks by accounting for human behaviour drivers in a context of global changes.