ISEFOR · Increasing Sustainability of European Forests: Modelling for Security Against Invasive Pests and Pathogens under Climate Change

European forests are under unprecedented threat from the combined forces of climate change and large increases in the numbers of alien invasive pests and pathogens resulting from changes in patterns of global trade. Interactions between climate change, including likely changes in both mean temperatures and precipitation, will have serious impacts on the susceptibility of forest ecosystems to damage by pests and pathogens, and a large number of novel, unprecedented forest health problems are likely to occur in the near future. These problems will lead to reductions in primary production, with consequent losses in yields, biodiversity and other multi-functional roles of forests. Local extinctions of highly susceptible plant species may also result. The ISEFOR project will address these problems through:  the identification of key groups of potentially invasive alien organisms,  the development of accurate, state-of-the art diagnostic methods to detect and quantify both known and unknown threats,  an in depth analysis of the plant nursery trade, the major poorly controlled pathway for distribution of alien pests and pathogens, and  through the development of modelling software enabling the prediction of geographical areas at risk of attack by alien invasive pests and pathogens under climate change scenarios. The efficacy of the ISEFOR project will be enhanced through the use of the recently developed large databases of alien pest and pathogen threats, and interfacing with other EU-funded projects dealing with plant health issues. Results will be directed to the national plant protection organisations through targeted workshops.