GOALDS · GOAL Based Damage Stability

The new probabilistic damage stability regulations for dry cargo and passenger ships (SOLAS 2009), which entered into force on January 1, 2009, represent a major step forward in achieving an improved safety standard through the rationalization and harmonization of damage stability requirements. There are, however, serious concerns regarding the adopted formulation for the calculation of the survival probability of ROPAX and mega cruise vessels; thus ultimately of the Attained and Required Subdivision Indices for passenger ships. Furthermore, present damage stability regulations account only for collision damages, despite the fact that accidents statistics, particularly of passenger ships, indicate the profound importance of grounding accidents.The proposed research project addresses the above issues by:Improving and extending the formulation introduced by MSC 216 (82) for the assessment of the probability of survival of ROPAX and mega cruise ships in damaged condition, based on extensive use of numerical simulations.Performing comprehensive model testing to investigate the process of ship stability deterioration in damaged condition and to provide the required basis for the validation of the numerical simulation results.Elaborating damage statistics and probability functions for the damage location, length, breadth and penetration in case of a collision / grounding accident, based on a thorough review of available information regarding these accidents over the past 30-60 years worldwide.Formulating a new probabilistic damage stability concept for ROPAX and cruise ships, incorporating collision and grounding damages, along with an improved method for calculation of the survival probability.Establishing new risk-based damage stability requirements of ROPAX and cruise vessels based on a cost/benefit analysis to establish the highest level for the required subdivision index.Investigating the impact of the new formulation for the probabilistic damage stability evaluation of passenger ships on the design and operational characteristics of a typical set of ROPAX and cruise vessel designs (case studies).Preparing and submitting a summary of results and recommendations to IMO for consideration (end of project, year 2012).