FUTURELARVAE · Integrating physiological responses into species distribution models to forecast the effects of future ocean warming and oxygen depletion on fish larvae dynamics

Assessing the effects of climate change in larval ecology is fundamental to predict the future of fish stocks and fish diversity since connectivity among fish populations depends on larval distribution patterns. To forecast these effects on larvae is challenging because each species exhibits specific responses to ocean warming and O2 depletion by improving physiological performance to adapt or shifting dispersal features to preserve climatic niche. Thus, FUTURELARVAE will incorporate physiological responses to rising temperature and O2 depletion into SDMs to mechanistically forecast the future distribution of fish larvae aiming at understanding the magnitude at which climate change will affect the suitability of present vs. future habitats for larvae that exhibit different functional guilds (pelagic vs. demersal) and life history strategies (short vs. long pelagic duration). Experimental biology will be used to produce eco-physiological data representing the larval response to present and future scenarios of climate change. These data will be integrated into SDMs using Bayesian GLMs in order to understand whether these life history strategies will succeed under future climate conditions. For this, experts in environmental computational science (ER), experimental biology (supervisor) and eco-physiology modelling (advisor) will exchange knowledge and complement each other’s know-how. The ER will gain new technical skills on analytical tools, processing of mechanistic models and apply tools to generate science-based advice for the conservation of marine resources. By the end of the MSCA-IF, the ER will have acquired transferable skills in scientific management, leadership, science dissemination/communication and stakeholder engagement and have broaden his network, boosting his career. The ER will acquire much-needed conceptual/technical skills that are in high demand during this UN decade of the Oceans and commitment to SDG14, increasing his employment opportunities.