FPAHHHOCT7 · Foreign Policy Analysis of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in a Post-October 7 World

Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are three major Middle Eastern non-state actors (MENSA) exercising hybrid governance across Gaza, southern Lebanon, and northern Yemen. Characterised as Iranian proxies and designated terrorist organisations by the US and allies, these entities demonstrate autonomous foreign policy decision-making that challenges traditional proxy frameworks. The June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict provides empirical evidence of strategic autonomy when all three MENSA chose restraint over military engagement despite Iranian involvement, prioritising diplomatic leverage over proxy obligations and have held direct negotiations with US and other major powers since October 2023.This project conducts systematic comparative foreign policy analysis of MENSA toward regional powers (Iran, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, UAE, Qatar) and global actors (US, EU, Russia, China, UK) to assess the balance between Iranian coordination and independent strategic calculation. Employing innovative methodological approaches including parallel diplomatic mapping, longitudinal crisis-impact analysis, and multi-source integration, the research examines official foreign policy statements, founding documents, leadership interviews, media discourse, and diplomatic practices including ceasefire talks and hostage exchanges. Primary data collection includes 63 semi-structured interviews with MENSA external affairs officials, regional/global foreign ministry representatives, and expert stakeholders. This project addresses critical gaps including comparative MENSA frameworks, Houthis' FP analysis, post-October 7 developments, and hybrid actor theories, developing a novel 'hybrid sovereignty actors' analytical framework that uniquely combines theoretical innovation with practical policy relevance. The 24-month research uses triangulation across sources, advanced qualitative methods, and reliability testing, delivering theoretical frameworks and EU policy recommendations.