EITC · Emergence and intensification of tropical cyclones

This proposal seeks support to develop a comprehensive theory for the interaction between tropical cyclones and turbulence and to apply this theory to understand the emergence and persistence of tropical cyclones. The goal is first of all to explain the relatively rare transformation of a small disturbance into a tropical cyclone of sufficient intensity, even if most such disturbances form under climatological conditions favoring cyclogenesis. The scales and characteristics of the emergent tropical cyclones with then be addressed and their intensification, along with their transition towards equilibration will be investigated. Finally the equilibrium vortex structure will be obtained and the sensitivity of these equilibria to changes in the vortex structure will be assessed. The physical mechanisms underlying the emergence and intensification of tropical cyclones is important to understand because of the catastrophic effects that tropical cyclones have in terms of damage and loss of life, especially in light of growing evidence that tropical cyclone activity is linked to human activity and greenhouse forcing. Moreover, development of this theory addressing the emergence of coherent vortices from turbulence as a general phenomenon, might benefit other fields in which interaction between vortices and turbulence is important such as in laboratory and industrial turbulence and astrophysical fluid dynamics.