Crisis-to-Creation · Crisis to Innovation: Turning challenges into opportunities through science and innovation

Crises such as climate-driven disasters, epidemiological shocks and technological failures expose hidden vulnerabilities and redirect priorities for science and innovation. The Fukushima disaster reoriented nuclear-safety and marine-contamination research; the Ebola outbreak accelerated viral genomics; and COVID-19 propelled mRNA platforms. Yet, prevailing theories of innovation largely assume stable landscapes of search and opportunity, leaving unanswered a central question: how do crisis-induced shifts in the opportunity landscape affect innovation strategies for individuals, firms, and nations?This project pursues two linked aims. At the individual level, it examines how crises can level the playing field among scientists, enabling lower status actors to improve their performance and raise their standing. At the firm level, it investigates the conditions under which startups can outcompete incumbents in crisis-induced technology development.To achieve these aims, the project exploits recent advances in data infrastructure and AI-based text analysis to integrate large-scale datasets on scientific and technological activity with records of major disaster events. We will build a harmonized roster of crises and systematically link them to subsequent scientific and technological outputs. Using state-of-the-art text modelling, we will identify the domains most affected and apply econometric techniques to compare affected and unaffected scientists and firms, thereby recovering causal effects.Conceptually, the project embeds crises and shifting opportunity landscapes into innovation theory. Methodologically, it applies staggered, triple-difference designs to estimate the impact of the crises on scientific status and firm performance. By moving beyond static models of innovation, the project clarifies how innovators can turn crises into innovation, offering guidance for strategy and policy in an increasingly unstable world