CLIMWELB · Climate Shocks and Subjective Wellbeing in Small Island Developing States: Implications for Subnational Foreign Aid

Subjective well-being (SWB) is gaining recognition as a key indicator of societal progress, yet it is often overlooked in assessments of the impacts of climate shocks, which are increasing in both severity and frequency. This research, CLIMWELB, aims to fill this gap by pursuing three specific research objectives: 1) examining the impact of climate shocks—drought, flooding, and extreme temperatures—on SWB, 2) investigating the mechanisms through which these shocks affect SWB, and 3) exploring the role of subnational foreign aid in mitigating the potential adverse effects of climate shocks on SWB. CLIMWELB will focus on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which rank among the most vulnerable globally to climate shocks and receive disproportionately higher levels of foreign aid relative to their economies. To achieve the specific research objectives, CLIMWELB will employ quasi-experimental methods, machine learning techniques, and a suite of robustness checks. Geocoded data on climate shocks and subnational foreign aid will be extracted from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and AidData project databases, respectively, while geocoded household data will be drawn from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the World Bank Microdata Library, and the Afrobarometer database. CLIMWELB will shape scientific discourse by providing the first evidence of the impact of climate shocks on SWB in vulnerable contexts such as SIDS, and offer pioneering insights into the role of subnational aid as a mitigating factor. In addition, CLIMWELB's findings will interest various stakeholders—including SIDS governments, foreign aid donors, international organizations (UN and EU agencies), NGOs, and international financial institutions (World Bank)—and inform their policies aimed at safeguarding small island communities and other vulnerable contexts.