CAUSAL-STORY · Causal Storylines of Climate for Adaptation in South America

In South America (SA), droughts and heat extremes can have devastating impacts, in particular for agriculture and urban areaIn South America (SA), droughts and heat extremes can have devastating impacts, in particular for agriculture and urban areas. Currently, effective adaptation is yet often not possible because near term (seasonal-to-decadal) predictions produced by climate models are highly uncertain. Achieving progress on these critical time-scales is particularly difficult due to a lack of understanding of the combined role of thermodynamic changes and changes in large-scale circulation which can be forced or due to natural variability. To address this, I will combine storyline approaches with causal inference and climate modeling to provide a comprehensive storyline description of plausible near term changes in the Southern Hemisphere large-scale circulation and the associated regional drought and heat extreme impacts in SA. These storylines will be targeted to inform agriculture and urban adaptation and will be strongly grounded on physical process understanding. Open access data and code to allow flexible adaptation of the methodology to other regions of the SH will be provided. The expected outcomes of this activity include high-impact publications, delivery of policy-relevant information to key stakeholders in South America, open access data and code and educational/computational resources for climate service providers. Throughout this activity, I will broaden my research scope and skills, gain training in leadership roles and strengthen my scientific network. This will make me a very competitive candidate for independent research positions in physical climate science and interdisciplinary climate adaptation initiatives. Overall, the initiative will impact our understanding of the Southern Hemisphere near term changes and regional impacts, which is critical for the socio-ecological adaptation of the Global South thus contributing to climate justice.