The first global, high-resolution analysis of how extreme ocean waves generated by tropical cyclones may change in a warming climate has bridged a critical gap in understanding of wave climatology.
The research was led by Postdoctoral Research Fellow Dr Guisela Grossmann-Matheson, alongside Professor Ian Young (Hon) and Postdoctoral Research Fellow Dr Alberto Meucci from the Department of Infrastructure Engineering in the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, and Jose-Henrique Alves from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Program Office.
Their findings have been published in Nature’s 'Scientific Reports’.
“Tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes and typhoons, generate massive ocean waves that cause significant threats to coastal areas,” Dr Grossmann-Matheson explains.
“These extreme waves, which have the chance to occur at least once in a 100-year period, can have devastating effects for coastal communities, leading to beach erosion, coastal flooding and infrastructure damage.
“As the climate warms, studies show there is a likelihood these tropical cyclones will become more intense, resulting in larger waves and more frequent extreme wave events.”
The researchers used computer models, along with historical and future data on tropical cyclone tracks and winds, to simulate long-term wave patterns, providing climatology of extreme waves globally and predicting how extreme wave heights might evolve by 2050.
This climatology is expected to support long-term planning for coastal regions worldwide impacted by tropical cyclones, helping to safeguard both infrastructure and local populations from future climate-induced hazards.
Key findings:
The team discovered significant regional variations in the projected change in wave heights. This information offers us new insights into how different parts of the world will be affected by stronger storms and extreme waves.
Increased wave heights: By 2050, some areas, including the Western and Eastern Pacific, and the South Indian Ocean, tropical cyclone generated extreme wave heights may rise up to 1.5 meters - about 10 per cent higher than current levels.
No clear trend in some regions: In the North Atlantic, there was no consistent change in wave height, while in the North Indian Ocean, particularly the Bay of Bengal, tropical cyclone generated extreme wave heights could decrease by as much as two meters or 14 per cent.
The researchers attribute these changes to both stronger storms and shifts in the paths these storms take, suggesting that more intense tropical cyclones could drive larger waves, particularly in certain regions.